In late October, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) decided not to move forward with reducing the biomass-based diesel and advanced biofuel requirements after the organization received backlash from corn-state lawmakers who expressed concerns that the moves would undercut ethanol demand.¹ In the USDA’s December supply demand update (WASDE), demand for soybean oil during the current marketing year as biodiesel feedstock was raised from 7 billion pounds to 7.5 billion pounds, a record amount.²

The WASDE also showed reduced domestic usage of soybean oil of 300 million pounds, so the net increase in forecast usage is only 200 million pounds. This did not affect future prices subsequent to the report. The USDA’s forecast cash price for soybean oil during the marketing year is an unchanged 34.5c/lb., which is a 2c/lb. increase from 2016’s average price. There were no significant changes to the soybean and soybean meal supply and demand projections in this report.

Expect the soybean oil price to display a soft tendency in the near term and to follow petroleum prices, longer term.

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